Home Prices Are Rising Again, But Not Everywhere the Same Way
If you have been watching the market and wondering whether prices have finally leveled off, the latest numbers say otherwise. Redfin's June report shows home prices up 3 percent from a year ago nationally, the fastest annual growth in ten months, with a 0.3 percent monthly gain that matched the strongest pace since January. But the national number tells you almost nothing about what is actually happening on the ground here in the Bay Area, and that gap is worth paying attention to.
San Francisco is the clearest illustration. Prices there dipped 1 percent from May to June, the largest monthly decline of any major metro Redfin tracks. Yet on a year over year basis, San Francisco leads the entire country with prices up 10.8 percent, driven largely by AI industry wealth flowing into the market. Redfin's economists point out that luxury home prices nationally are rising three times faster than non-luxury homes right now, and that affluent buyers are simply less sensitive to high mortgage rates than the rest of the market. In tight inventory pockets like San Francisco, that gives sellers real staying power on price even when a single month looks soft.
That same underlying story shows up closer to home in Contra Costa and Alameda counties, just at a steadier pace. In Contra Costa County, the median sale price sits at $837,488, up 2.1 percent from a year ago. In Alameda County, the median has climbed to $1.2 million, up 5.4 percent year over year, with homes still moving quickly there, typically in about 17 days. Both counties are seeing the same limited supply of move in ready homes that is propping up prices in San Francisco, just without the same AI driven surge at the very top of the market.
For sellers in Walnut Creek, Danville, Concord, Oakland, or Fremont, I would not read too much into any single month's number, up or down. The county level trend in both Contra Costa and Alameda still points to steady appreciation, and that is the number worth keeping in view rather than short term swings.
For buyers, it means coming in prepared for real competition rather than assuming the kind of leverage buyers in some other parts of the country are starting to see. Redfin's data shows there are still more sellers than buyers nationally, but that gap is not evenly distributed, and it is certainly not the story across most of the East Bay right now.
